Just when it was time to put a fork in the Friday system, the Canadian and European models take a major jog north. The Canadian now actually shows a light snow event for our area while the Euro shows light snows, just on our doorstep to the south.

The difference is that the models are showing what is called “phasing” between the southern and northern jet streams. This basically means they feed off each other’s energy and move closer together.

The GFS continues to show this to be a bigger threat for Cuba than us! What is right? Who knows, but the result usually falls somewhere in the middle. Still, it wouldn’t take much precip to give us accumulating snows because it will be so called our ratios will be sky high — we could see 2.5 inches of snow from just .1 inches of precip.

Is this a blip or a trend? We’ll know after the 0z runs early in the morning. Right now, I’d say still a low chance of getting some snow — the pessimist will only see “low” in that clause while the optimist will see “chance.” Which are you?

Looks like we will miss the next storm by being too far north, if you can believe that. Texas and Northern Louisiana as well as area of Mississippi and other Gulf coastal area have a good chance at accumulating snows.

There have been a few model toying around with bringing the system north, but the 0z GFS crushed that idea by suppressing it even farther south.

So places that don’t see snow even more than 95 percent of the time will see snow Friday — we’ll see how the spinmeisters handle that.

Anyway, we all know that snow is a longshot here, which is why we enjoy tracking threats, right? The fun is in the tracking. And nobody I read on this blog ever guarantees anything –we just talk about chances for snow, whether those chances are good or bad.

This was a good-looking one from 5-6 days out — and the truth is, few systems pass by with snow to our south. This one apparently will.

Regarding the overall pattern, it will remain a normal to below normal. In fact, all week we will see highs below normal — failing to reach the 50s through at least Monday. Come to think of it, when is the last time we hit 50 degrees for back to back days?

It has been a cold, wet winter — we’ve frankly been very unlucky to receive as little winter precip as we have (even though what we have received has beaten most of the past 5 years).

To whoever called for a cold February — good call on that — we will reach the halfway mark of the month well below normal with no end in sight. Anybody who doesn’t think this has been a cold month needs to get out more.

I’ll keep an eye on the Friday system in case something changes, but it looks like more than a longshot right now.

Brief update — after a couple other less-reliable models jumped on board with yesterday’s 12z GFS showing a more northerly track for our storm system Friday, the trend has been back to suppression, especially with “Dr. No” (the European model) which now has the surface low over MIAMI — way too far south to affect us.

Need a marked north trend by the end of the day’s model runs or it’s time to write this one off and look for the next threat.

EDIT:  Euro stays south.

So, let’s review the winter so far before diving into what I see as a very promising threat Friday.

First, it’s been an excellent pattern for us overall — an active southern jet with plenty of cold air supply. We’ve seen two accumulating winter events — a 2 inch sleet in December and then a snow event that ranged from 3 inches in the southern part of the county to 7 inches in the north.

Not bad, considering we are only in early February.

Still, I don’t know about you, but despite all that it feels like a disappointment. Why? Mainly, because we haven’t had a nice, clean, all-snow event — too many issues with mixing and sleet, etc.

Which brings us to winter trends:

1) In the medium and long-range, southern stream system have trended juicier.

2) In the medium and long-range, systems have trended further north. (witness our last snow event — D.C. was forecast to receive ZERO from that storm as late as 2 days before it arrived — they ended up with 3-6 inches; of course, this supersnow event from this weekend trended north as well — Richmond went from 12-18 inches down to less than 6 because of a north trend).

3) CAD performance has been uneven — sometimes it has underperformed, sometimes overperformed

4) All of this has meant that even when models shows us JUST on the good side of a rain-snow line, the trend north moves us to right ON the line or just on the wrong side.

Soooooooo, that brings us to the Friday threat. Only a fool would say on a Sunday that it’s going to snow on Friday, but I will say this: I have more optimism on this system than anything else I’ve seen all winter in the Day 5/6 range. And you might find this amazing when I tell you that there is really NO model that shows us getting much of ANYTHING from this system!

Let’s look at the 12z GFS.

First, early Friday morning.  As you can see, low pressure is developing in the NW Gulf with the upper level freezing line well into the Deep South.

Now, early Friday afternoon.  Low pressure strengthens with snow breaking out in the northern half of Miss. and Ala.

Next, early Friday evening.  Low pressure in the central Gulf with a wide swath of snow falling in Miss., Ala., Ga. and southern S.C.

Next, after midnight Sat. AM. Low pressure over Ocala, Fla. Snow over much of S.C. and Ga. Maybe some flurries over southern N.C.

Finally, Sat. dawn. More snow for S.C. and extreme SE NC with flurries over the rest of N.C.

Here is the overall precip map for the storm. Study this closely. The 850mb (upper level) freezing line keeps the northern 2/3 of Ga. and all but the far SE corner of S.C. under freezing for the entire event. Even with a surface freezing line somewhat to the north, it’s certainly safe to say that anything that falls in the nothern half of Ga. and the NW half of SC would be snow.

What about us?

Well, we’re right on the .1 precip line — that’s a dusting of snow to perhaps an inch.

But look how close the .25 inch line us — it runs from Monroe, to Rock Hill over to Sparanburg — just 20-30 miles to our south. That line would be 1-2 inches of snow.

Then the .5 line runs from north of Columbia, S.C., to north of Augusta, Ga. — about 70-80 miles to our south. That’s 3-5 inches of snow.

And the .75 line (5-7 inches of snow) is just another 25 miles south of that.

The point is — with just a 100 mile trend north over 5-6 days we could go from a dusting to a major snow event.

The truth is, the way this winter has gone, I’d be less surprised to see this storm trend TOO FAR to the north than not enough.

So, what can go wrong?

Hah! At 5-6 days — EVERTHING! Most of the models have shown this storm even more suppressed. In fact, some have shown our southern disturbance basically get squashed by the powerful northern jet stream supplying us with cold air.

Or, our northern trend could not only move us into the sweet spot, but beyond and we could end up with temps issues again.

Or, about a million other things that could crop up.

By the way, I’m sending this about a half hour before the new run of the Euro starts — will “Dr. No” crush my optimism or come on board? We shall see!

Check out this link. It’s to the observations at the Shelby airport.

Scroll down to where it lists the last 24 hours of observations.

First, you’ll note that from 7 p.m Thursday until 6 p.m. today, there was either rain or mist recorded at the airport every hour.

But what’s truly amazing is the temperature column.

Incredibly, the temperature was between 31.8 and 33.1 for 23 consecutive hours!

Can you imagine what kind of winter storm we would have had with just 1 DEGREE cooler temperatures?

Regardless, it’s a pretty remarkable weather feat to have have sustained precip and temperatures this close to freezing for 23 straight hours — and that streak could continue well into the night!

We will still see bands of showers move through this afternoon and evening, but the really widepread rain is off to our east.

Washington D.C. still bracing for a 18-36 inch snow event. Can you imagine?

In terms of our future, it will continue to be cold, but we can’t get the timing right for an all-snow event. The Tuesday threat is gone — another chilly rain is the best we’ll get from that.

The Day 7 maps for the Euro and GFS are very promising. The GFS shows a storm suppressed to our south while the Euro has a nice snow event unfolding from a Gulf Low. This is the combination that has the most promise for us — the GFS is ALWAYS too suppressed and the Euro is the most reliable. Definitely something worth tracking.

In the meantime, it will continue to be cold with highs only in the 40s through next week.

Hereis the link:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ068&warncounty=NCC045&firewxzone=NCZ068&local_place1=Shelby+NC&product1=Flood+Warning

Be careful driving — lots of huge puddles of standing water forming.

Now you know why Washington D.C. is forecasted to receive 15-25 inches of snow over the next 24 hours. This driving rainstorm will be a driving snow storm in the nation’s capital.

We were obviously as close as you can get here — the temperature has been between 32 and 33 at the Shelby airport all night and into the morning.

As the day wears on, the temps should go nowhere but up — very slowly, mind you, but surely.

Just took a peek at some short range models and I’m still not seeing it for warning criteria accumulations of snow, sleet or ice.

Yes, it’s a very close call, but it’s going to be tough for it get any colder here with a retreating high pressure and warm air aloft.

Probably no more updates tonight unless I see something markedly different. The mountains are a much different story and then this turns into a bonafide blizzard up towards D.C. and the Delmarva.

Keep the obs rolling in — the best chance at frozen precip will be when the big batch of precip rolls in around midnight.

Post your obs here (I’m off to coach hoops practice — back after 7).

This radar loop  (time sensitive) shows heavier returns on our doorstep. In NE Ga. and S.C. upstate, the heavier returns have been when snow has mixed in or taken over as precip type — still in upper 30s in Shelby, so I am still very dubious of accumulations, but we’ll see.