Finally, there are some indications from the GFS and European models of a cold snap starting weekend after next and perhaps lasting more than a day or 2.

That’s too far out to focus on any specific system, but it would be the first east-coast trough really all season.

The GFS has been showing a cold outbreak in its far outer time frame (Day 13-15) for a number of weeks, but it has not translated to earlier in the run into the last day or 2. Now, it shows a decent cold outbreak around Day 10 lasting through Day 15.

We’ve had some false signals before, but usually from one model or the other, not both. Still, the pattern is not conducive to cold weather, so this could just be another false alarm. Or, it could be just another passing cold front that is followed by a quick warmp.

 But, we’ve got to track something, right?!?!

Hah! Usually “historic” means lots of snow — not this year! We have yet to even see a flake this season. How is that historic? Well, since they started keeping records 133 years ago, there has NEVER been a winter when Charlotte didn’t at least have a trace of snow.

NEVER.

So far, we haven’t seen a trace or a flake or a pellet of sleet and there is nothing on the horizon.

The pattern continues to be hostile to winter weather and with only 2-3 weeks left to get it turned around, it’s time to start playing “Taps” on snow chances for this season.

The only hope is some sort of late pattern change that takes effect late in February and produces a rogue snow event. Remember, we CAN see snow in March, but with every day that passes, our chances nosedive.

Sorry not more to track this winter — maybe we will see double the fun next season!

Yes, it ended up being much colder this weekend, but it was really just fool’s gold. We had some weak cold-air damming set up that caused our temps to be much colder than many areas surrounding us. But there was never any threat of snow and there doesn’t appear to be a threat until well into February. Only slim chance is a system moving through Friday — if it slowed down and allowed cold air to get in here ahead of it,we might have something to track, but doesn’t look likely (and we all know how it works when cold air is chasing moisture).

We’re certainly going to have some chilly days — some cold air may finally settle in starting Sunday and lasting into next week, but it does not appear like it will be accompanied by any moisture.

Overall, the major indices continue to be hostile to snow. I’d say the chances of not seeing snow this winter are about 8 out of 10.

Wish I had better news!

It’s going to feel like it, starting this weekend. By Sunday we should see highs in the 60s, and that could just be the start. By later in the week, we could see record high temperatures, into the 70s!

This will likely cause some premature spring growth to commence. If the rest of the winter stays mild, this might not be so bad. But if we were to get a late-season cold snap, it could be devastating to new vegetation.

In the long-term, there are some faint signs that a colder pattern might return, but not anytime soon. We should definitely experience a lack of cold air for the next 10-15 days. Still a shot for colder air in February, but the clock is ticking and I remain pessimistic.

Incredibly, whatever changes happened with our weather pattern apparently made things even WORSE! All long-range models now show potentially record warmth as we move toward the end of the month with NO significant cold air in sight. There maybe a few cold fronts that blow through and cool things down, but nothing as cold as what we’re getting this weekend and certainly no chance of snow.

Some of the pro mets I follow have all but thrown in the towel for the entire winter. Even the most optimistic ones conceded that January is probably hopeless and that only a wintry mid to late February/Early March can salvage this dreadful winter.

Wish I had better news to share. At least the nut jobs that troll my blog claiming that all I ever do is honk for snow have nothing to whine about this year!

Have a great weekend, everyone!

There are changes in the polar regions that are significant — some blocking setting up particularly on the Pacific side. But the practical affect on our weather is not materializing. In fact, the models are moving toward a much warmer scenario for the end of January than they showed just a couple days ago.

Need to be ready for quick model changes as they handle pattern changes poorly, but I’m very much inclined to write off the rest of January for snow and probably into early February. In fact, my gut tells me that this could very well be a snowless winter. Still to early to say for sure, but this pattern is dreadful and we’re not even really get ANY close shots or anything to even track.

Wish I had better news to report ….

Two straight GFS runs have joined the rest of the computer model world by losing the potential Sunday system. This was by far the most likely result as the GFS is consistently outperformed in the winter by the European model.

The long-range look still has promise — there is some indication of some fun in the middle of next week, but realistically, we are probably still 2 weeks away from a pattern that has a good chance of producing snow.

Right now, that wait seems pretty painful, doesn’t it?

Also, I am concerned that 2 weeks puts us in late January and our window of good snow days will start to close. No way around the fact that if your top snow-producing month comes and goes without snow, the chances of getting snow are reduced.

One good snow can save the day, however, so we will choose to keep hope!

It’s “Dr. No” because whenever the GFS teases us with a snowy solution, the Euro is always there to gun it down, which is precisely what it did with the 12z run — not even a whiff of a storm through Day 10 — nice cold outbreak last this week, but then warming up again by early next week. Given that the Canadian also dismisses the GFS solution, my thought it is to jettison the GFS as an outlier.

The models show some elements of a good pattern change remain, but others are missing, which causes me to question whether this pattern change will really be all its cracked up to be. Too soon to know on that, but I think a prudent course of action is to keep optimism well in check until the models reach some sort of consensus on the upcoming pattern.

The 12z GFS did something interesting today — it spit out a solution which would give us a couple of inches of snow early Sunday morning. Yes, that’s THIS Sunday, not some Sunday 3 or 4 weeks from now.

This solution looked COMPLETEY different from its prior run and should be taken with dump truck loads of salt. BUT, it is an indicator of two things: 1) We are moving into a signficant pattern change when the models tend to be all over the place 2) When the pattern is as bad as ours has been, a pattern change will almost certainly bring something better to the table. To wit, there are strong indications that high lattitude blocking regimes will set up — at least for a bit — which will increase our snow chances.

Here is the GFS map (and the first model map of any kind to depict snow within a 7 day window thus far this winter!)

Now, the chances of this verifying — given the extreme model volatility — are very small. But, there is a lot of precip that falls as rain right after this panel, so there is also some upside here, as well. Still, to illustrate the variance in models and model runs, the new 12z Canadian map at 144 hours looks absolutely nothing like the GFS — no precip anywhere near us.

The good news is, the models will probably get a hold of this pattern by mid/late week and things should start to come into better focus. In the meantime, get ready for a rollercoast ride!

The medium and long-range models are ALL OVER THE PLACE. The Euro shows a big cold surge next weekend, but dry. The GFS is warmer, but very wet. The Canadian shows something different. This is an excellent sign that a pattern change is commencing. But what will it bring? Well, if you take GFS preceip and add Euro temps, we would be in a winter wonderland. But GFS temps and Euro precip would be just the opposite.

The point is, we see how this settles out in the next few days. SOMETHING is going to be different in the pattern, probably starting next weekend or early the following week. Hopefully, but early this coming week, we will have an idea just what that pattern will be.