While this will be welcomed rain for many, it for a large swath of the region, it will be too much, too fast.

Check out this precipitation forecast map from the latest run of the GFS computer model.

Yes, those are NINE INCH rain totals for much of Eastern N.C. with a wide swath of 3-6 inch totals from central Alabama through northern Ga. and all of N.C.

Now, other models show the rain shield farther south,  so don’t get too caught up in details. The point is, starting around daybreak or so, it’s going to start raining, and it’s not really going to stop for at least a day with more intermittent rain possible through Thursday or even beyond.

And if we end up in that 9-inch blob? There will be major flooding of creeks and streams. Look for flood watches to be posted for our area tomorrow.

Post from: Skip Foster

I must say, I’ve wondered if I was the only person who thought what he thinks.

The example he uses is of a child next to a ticking time bomb, but even broader examples work. What’s your answer to this question: If there was a strong reason to believe that a terrorist nuclear attack was imminent, would you favor the use of torture as a last resort to extract from a fellow terrorist the information necessary to thwart the attack?

Hate to be this blunt, but anybody who would answer no to that needs their head examined.

Post from: Skip Foster

Here is an excerpt from the forecast discussion by the NWS in Greenville-Spartanburg:

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA…SOUTH AND WEST OF AN ASHEVILLE TO CHARLOTTE LINE…IN A DAY
ONE MODERATE RISK. THE REST OF THE FA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK. A MOD
RISK IN OUR AREA IS A FAIRLY RARE EVENT…AND FOLKS REALLY NEED TO
STAY ALERT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

Here is the map showing a moderate risk.

A tornado watch is already in affect for northern Alabama — those storms are heading our way.

The best chance for severe weather is late in the afternoon and early evening.

I’ll keep you updated on this throughout the day.

Post from: Skip Foster

Sunny skies …

Highs in the 70s ….

No rain ….

Then.

BAM!

A rare cold outbreak will hit the area Monday night into Wednesday that will make it feel much more like February than April.

Highs will struggle to get out of the 40s on Tuesday and Tuesday night could see a hard freeze which would be very bad news to growers and plant lovers. If you are planning on doing a bunch of spring planting this weekened, keep in mind that Tuesday night could wipe out some or all of your work.

Post from: Skip Foster

79 degrees tomorrow.

76 on Sunday.

WINTER NOT OVER?!?!?!?!?

Believe it.

There is very strong model agreement that we will see an unusual, but not unprecedented, cooldown last next week into next weekend.

And while the chances are small, some sort of wintry precipitation can’t be ruled out.

In fact, here is an excerpt from the NWS HPC extended forecast discussion just released last hour:

 HOWEVER 12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING FLATTENING OF THIS UPPER RIDGE DAY 5 AND BEYOND
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES COMES INTO PLAY. THIS
COULD EVENTUALLY SET UP AN OVERRUNNING EVENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES NEXT THU/FRI.  SOME SN ON THE NRN EDGE. A NWD EXPANSION OF
THIS AREA INTO THE OH VLY COULD PUT SN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD BUT WILL HOLD OFF GETTING TOO DETAILED WITH THIS 5-6
DAYS OUT.

Here is the 12z GFS for next Friday morning. At the best, that’s a bone chilling cold rain. And given the perfect position of that high, if the models are only slightly underestimating the push of cold air …..

Now, there are some HUGE things working against winter precip with these series of disturbances.

1) It’s mid-March. Every minute the clock ticks decreases our chance of snow or ice.

2) It’s mid-March.

3) Did I mention it’s mid-March. Seriously, the angle of the sun is much higher and the days are much longer, which is why we saw 6 inches of snow last Sunday and Atlanta (when the snow fell in the daytime) only saw a couple.

But whether we have snow/ice or not, it does seem clear that Old Man Winter is only taking a brief nap and we will see sharply colder weather late next week.

Post from: Skip Foster

But it has been quite a ride, hasn’t it?

While there will be period over the next 2-3 hours when it stops snowing except for flurries, there is still a good chance a passing band will laydown another inch or 2 or even 3 before the snow ends later tonight.

I started at around 5 a.m. today in Richmond so I’m hitting the sack. PLEASE feel free to keep posting observations, however. I’ll be interested to know how long it kept snowing when I check-in on the blog in the morning.

Thanks again for a great ride.

PLEASE be safe tonight and tomorrow.

Post from: Skip Foster

It’s very interesting to hear the divergent snow totals across the county. Based on the comments, we have a range of 4-9 inches. I was at 5 1/2 inches 20 minutes ago so I think 6 is now a safe bet.

My guess is that when it’s all said and done, most will have at least 6 inches and some will have 10, perhaps even 12 inches of snow.

I’m sure you’ve noticed that there is little to no wind — unfortunately, that’s going to change. I’m afriad power outages will become much more widespread when the wind picks up later tonight. My power flickered off for 30 seconds, then miraculously came back on.

Stay safe!

Post from: Skip Foster

A large tree crashed into his house I am happy to report nobody was injured, but I’m afraid the tree has left a hole in Robert’s ceiling.

He has also lost power along with everyone on his street.

He has a shocking 8 inches of snow in less than 3 hours. Yes, that’s three straight hours of 3 inch-per-hour snowfall rates.

He says the tree situation is worse than any ice storm he has seen.

PLEASE BE CAREFUL! I worry very much about children playing outdoors tonight (or grownups!) when these trees start coming down.

Also, be prepared for power losses.

And there is no reason shy of an emergency to be on the road!

Still snowing in Shelby — at about 5 inches now.

Post from: Skip Foster

As you will read, we are under 2-3 inch-per-hour snowfall with frequent lightning.

While this is incredible snow rates that we all wished for, Capt. Ron’s comment from a previous post is worth reiterating: There are going to be folks who lose power from this storm?

Why?

Well, heavy wet snow like this is really like a poor man’s ice storm. It all sticks to trees (unlike dry powder that tends to slide off and get to the ground). So, the weight of that snow becomes like the weight of ice.

Anyway, be aware of that — I especially worry about kids playing outdoors tonight.

Now, back to the snow — it’s entirely possible we climb into double digits in accumulation if this keeps up.

Don’t waste your time worrying about whether or not they cancel school — that’s a foregone conclusion.

Post from: Skip Foster

It looks to me like the snow is coming down at about a 2-inch per hour clip — maybe even harder.

We’ll probably only see snow for 4-8 more hours, but that could still add up to 8 inches, maybe even more.

If you look at the radar, we are in a gorgeous sweet spot. Those yellow bands must be obcenely heavy snow.

I’d say 6 inches is a pretty safe bet for most of us, would you?

By the way, anybody seen “Ozman,” “Earl2″ and the Debbie Downers from earlier this afternoon?

Keep those observations coming!

Post from: Skip Foster